Indian mobile tariffs could rise by 12-15% within four to five months, according to Centrum Institutional Research. As reported by ANI, the report notes that the pricing environment has become more favourable with only 3+1 players in the market, leading to expectations of another significant tariff increase. The prediction comes as telecom players have been encouraging subscribers to migrate to higher-value plans by adding new services and discontinuing lower-value ones. Airtel has already introduced new postpaid plans with price hikes of 3-11% to improve average revenue per user (ARPU), while earlier this year, Vi also increased prices for some postpaid family packs by 7% to 9%. The pricing environment has become more favourable with the industry consolidation, creating conditions for the anticipated tariff increases.
The tariff increase remains a brokerage forecast, with operators yet to officially announce any changes to their mobile plans. According to the report, if companies introduce widespread price increases in line with Centrum's expectations, prepaid and postpaid users could face higher bills across plan categories. The extent of the increase for individual customers would depend on each operator's changes to prices, validity periods, data limits and bundled benefits. Centrum advises customers to wait for official confirmation from their respective operators and not assume that existing plans priced at ₹299, ₹349 or any other amount will automatically become more expensive by 12-15%. Brokerages have signalled that in the July-September quarter, Airtel and Jio are likely to gain subscriber market share at the expense of Vi, with migration to higher-priced plans, upgrades to 4G/5G, conversion to postpaid and other premiumisation strategies expected to support ARPU growth.
Bharti Airtel, Reliance Jio and Vodafone Idea are expected to report a 0.8-2.0% quarter-on-quarter increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) in the second quarter of FY27, driven by customers upgrading from 2G to 4G or 5G, growth in postpaid subscriptions and more days in the quarter. As reported by Centrum, Airtel's ARPU is projected to rise by 2.0% to an industry-leading ₹269 per month, while its revenue is expected to grow by approximately 3.1% QoQ. Reliance Jio's ARPU is expected to rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter to ₹218 per month, with Jio's ARPU estimated to rise 1% QoQ and 3% YoY to ₹218 in Q2FY27, while Vodafone Idea's blended ARPU is projected to increase by around 0.8% to ₹178 per month. According to Elara Securities, Airtel's ARPU is expected to increase 1.2% sequentially and 4.5% year-on-year to ₹267 in Q2FY27, supported by ongoing 2G-to-4G migrations and quarterly day count.
According to the report, Airtel and Jio are likely to expand their share of the subscriber market at Vodafone Idea's expense. As reported by Centrum, Jio is projected to add roughly eight million subscribers quarter-on-quarter (QoQ), taking its total to 541 million, while Airtel could gain three million wireless subscribers to reach 380 million. Vodafone Idea is expected to add one million subscribers, bringing its total to 194 million. According to Elara Securities, Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio are expected to add around 4.1 million and 7.2 million mobile subscribers, respectively, in the September quarter. Centrum also expects data consumption per customer to remain strong as access to 4G and 5G networks expands. Jio's growth is expected to be driven by 5G FWA additions and a higher number of days in the quarter, translating into an estimated 2.6% QoQ revenue expansion.
