Shares of e-commerce operator Meesho Ltd. rallied 5% in early trade on Wednesday, opening at ₹172.35 and hitting an intraday high of ₹174.65 on the BSE after global brokerage Jefferies initiated coverage with a 'buy' rating and price target of ₹225. The stock closed at ₹166.73 on Tuesday, representing a 16.22% decline over the past 10 days with trading volume falling by 16 million shares. The buying momentum came after Jefferies highlighted Meesho's scale-led value commerce platform anchored in affordability, discovery, and logistics efficiency, targeting price-sensitive, largely non-metro users. The target price implies a potential upside of about 34% from current levels, with the stock currently trading over 52% higher than its listing price of ₹111.
Shares of e-commerce operator Meesho Ltd. rose 2% in morning trade on Wednesday after a significant block deal worth ₹1,540 crore was executed. According to latest reports, 9.3 crore shares, representing about 2% equity, changed hands in the block deal. The stock was trading at around ₹170 in morning deals, representing a 53% gain from its IPO issue price of ₹111. The transaction comes a day after the expiry of the company's six-month shareholder lock-in period, which made a large portion of pre-IPO holdings eligible for trading. As per Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research, nearly 68% of Meesho's outstanding equity became eligible for trading on June 10, although lock-in expiry does not necessarily imply immediate selling by investors.
Shares of e-commerce operator Meesho Ltd. fell 0.73% on Tuesday, closing at ₹166.73 from the previous day's high of ₹167.96. During the trading session, the stock fluctuated 3.97% from a day low of ₹163.12 to a day high of ₹169.60. The stock has experienced a 16.22% decline over the past 10 days, with trading volume falling by 16 million shares on Tuesday. According to technical analysis, the stock is expected to rise 29.18% during the next 3 months, with a 90% probability of holding between ₹215.39 and ₹309.85 at the end of this period. For Wednesday's trading, the stock is expected to open at ₹166.48 and move between ₹161.97 and ₹171.49 during the day.
Jefferies expects monetisation to improve as scale expands and forecasts around 25% net merchandise value (NMV) CAGR through FY30, along with a 27% revenue CAGR. The brokerage emphasizes that Meesho's zero seller commission framework drives simplicity and transparency, enabling rapid onboarding, including first-time online merchants. The company currently serves around 264 million annual transacting users and works with nearly 9.6 lakh sellers, processing more than 2.5 billion orders in FY26. Revenue is services-led, driven by fulfilment, advertising, and seller tools rather than commissions, with advertising contributing approximately 3% of NMV. The asset-light logistics model combines captive platform Valmo with third-party partners, keeping costs competitive. Technology and AI are central to discovery, conversion, and cost control, with tools like PRISM recommendation engine, Vaani voice AI, and GeoIndia LLM for address resolution. The company's net cash balance sheet supports efficient growth, as highlighted by Jefferies.
The brokerage noted that Meesho is well-positioned to benefit from India's rapidly expanding value-commerce market, where online commerce still accounts for only around 7% of total retail sales. According to Jefferies, India's e-commerce market is expected to grow more than 20% annually over the next five years, with tier-2 and smaller cities currently accounting for 44% of India's e-commerce market and expected to exceed 50% over the next five years. Value-focused e-commerce platforms are gaining market share faster than traditional online retailers because of their ability to offer significantly lower average selling prices across categories. Jefferies forecasts that Meesho's adjusted EBITDA losses will narrow steadily over the next few years, with profitability expected to improve as scale increases, and the company is projected to turn free cash flow positive by FY28. Despite its positive outlook, the brokerage flagged competition from larger e-commerce players, logistics disruptions and macroeconomic weakness as key risks to the investment case.
