Lupin Ltd. shares fell 0.7% on Tuesday, September 22, following HSBC's decision to cut the drugmaker's price target by 10% to ₹2,500 from ₹2,770 earlier. According to reports from CNBC TV18, the revised price target implies an upside potential of 18% from current levels. The brokerage retained its 'buy' recommendation despite the target reduction, citing valuation concerns as the primary reason for the revision.
As reported by CNBC TV18, HSBC stated that Lupin's current valuation appears to be 'overemphasising' the already known concentration risks, while at the same time, it is undermining the potential of the US lineup it has in store. The brokerage expects Lupin's US sales to stabilise at around $1.2 billion annually during FY27-FY29, following the anticipated reset in its FY27 base. HSBC expects new product launches in the US to support Lupin's sales trajectory going forward.
According to CNBC TV18, in the first quarter of FY27, Lupin's consolidated net profit rose 16.1% year-on-year to ₹1,415 crore, while revenue from operations increased 33.3% to ₹8,217 crore. Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) rose 47.3% to ₹2,390 crore, pushing the EBITDA margin up to 29.1% from 26.3% in Q1 FY26. The US remained Lupin's largest market with revenue rising to $366 million from $282 million in the year-ago quarter.
As reported by CNBC TV18, India revenue increased 14% to ₹2,379.6 crore, while other developed markets grew 48.3% to ₹1,149.4 crore. Emerging-market revenue increased 51.7% to ₹989.7 crore. HSBC expects Lupin's India business and other markets outside the US to continue showing traction, providing support to overall growth.
According to CNBC TV18, 20 of 41 analysts covering Lupin have a 'Buy' rating on the stock, while 12 have a 'Hold' rating and nine have a 'Sell' rating. The 12-month consensus target price stands at ₹2,477.59, implying an upside of around 17% from Monday's close. The analyst price targets range from as low as ₹1,800 to as high as ₹2,899. Shares have declined nearly 8% over the last six months, but have gained around 6% over the last 12 months.
