Lupin shares recovered sharply from their intraday losses on August 27 after falling as much as 1.8% to a six-month low earlier in the session. The stock was trading around ₹2,184 in afternoon trade, nearly flat from the previous close, after erasing the day's losses. At the current price, Lupin has a market capitalization of just under ₹1 lakh crore and is up about 3.8% so far in 2026, outperforming the Nifty 50, which has fallen 7.5% over the same period.
Brokerage firm Citi has downgraded Lupin to 'Sell' from 'Buy' and cut its price target by 19% to ₹2,050 from ₹2,540 per share. The revised target implies a downside of about 6% from the stock's previous close. According to Citi, the downgrade reflects concerns over Lupin's US business, which has been a key driver of the company's growth and profitability. Citi expects Lupin's US sales to decline from around $1.3 billion in FY26 to $975 million by FY29E. Additionally, Citi sees EBITDA margins narrowing from 30% in Q1FY27 to 20% by FY29E. The brokerage also cut its FY27 earnings-per-share estimate by 14% reflecting its more cautious outlook on the company's earnings trajectory.
Despite Citi's bearish stance, Bernstein retained its 'Outperform' rating on Lupin with a target price of ₹2,707 per share, implying an upside of about 24% from the previous close. The brokerage highlighted a favourable patent ruling for Lupin's generic version of Kalydeco (ivacaftor), which removes the key hurdle to an immediate launch. The Delaware District Court ruled that Lupin's formulation did not infringe four Vertex patent claims, removing the principal litigation barrier to the launch. Lupin is the first-to-file applicant and is eligible for 180 days of exclusivity. Bernstein estimates the ivacaftor opportunity could generate annual sales of $20-30 million for Lupin, equivalent to around 1.4-2.1% of its current annualised US revenue.
Longer-term growth could come from products including Neulasta Onpro, Etanercept and Spiriva Respimat, but these programmes have not been filed yet, limiting near-term visibility. Citi noted that "elevated execution risk and limited visibility on replacing current high-margin products" prompted the downgrade. The brokerage believes the company's pipeline may not be sufficient to offset the decline in key products such as gJynarque and gMyrbetriq. While Apixaban could provide support to earnings in FY28E, Citi believes this benefit may be short-lived, limiting its ability to drive sustained earnings growth over the longer term.
On the technical front, Lupin's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 29.3, indicating an oversold zone. An RSI reading below 30 generally suggests the stock has witnessed significant selling pressure and could potentially see a short-term rebound if buying interest returns. However, Lupin is currently trading below all 8 key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) being tracked, indicating broad-based downward momentum. This suggests investors may look for signs of sustained buying before considering a meaningful trend reversal, as the technical trend remains bearish despite the oversold RSI reading.
