Global brokerage firm Jefferies has downgraded liquid and gas logistics operator Aegis Vopak to a 'Hold' rating from a 'Buy', even as it raised its price target on the stock to ₹280 from ₹240. According to reports from Jefferies, the rating downgrade comes primarily on the back of sharp valuation rerating, following a substantial 35% outperformance against the benchmark Nifty index since June. Analysts believe this leaves limited room for near-term upside despite the company's strong operational performance.
Aegis Vopak delivered robust operational results in the first quarter, with EBITDA beating consensus estimates by 14%. The outperformance was largely powered by the liquids segment, which saw a 31% year-on-year revenue jump driven by robust volume ramp-up at its Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) terminal. As reported by Jefferies, the company's gas logistics division demonstrated strong market resilience, maintaining high throughput share despite a sharp 45% YoY contraction in aggregate national LPG import volumes.
In its gas logistics division, the joint venture demonstrated strong market resilience by handling 32% of India's total LPG imports during the quarter. According to Jefferies, this market leadership position was maintained despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, with the company successfully capturing a significant portion of the country's LPG import volumes. The division's ability to maintain high throughput share despite the sharp decline in national import volumes underscores its competitive position in the market.
Beyond quarterly numbers, Jefferies highlighted that Aegis Vopak's multi-year capacity expansion blueprint remains firmly on track. The company has planned USD 5 billion capex through FY31 with an estimated 36% FY26-30 EBITDA CAGR. However, despite sound underlying business fundamentals and robust medium-term growth visibility, the brokerage noted that current market pricing adequately reflects these positives. As reported by Jefferies, the stock currently trades at 33x September-2027 estimated EV/EBITDA, with the recent rally and outperformance relative to broader market indices prompting concerns about limited margin of safety.
