India's fast-moving consumer goods companies are set to report a largely steady March quarter performance, with demand holding up despite a complex operating environment. According to reports from Mint, large listed players such as Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL), ITC Ltd, Nestle India, Dabur, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd and Marico Ltd are expected to reflect these cross-currents in their March quarter earnings, which will kick off later this month. As reported by Mint, "FMCG companies will be able to maintain a status quo in the domestic market this quarter," said Ankur Bisen, senior partner and head of retail, consumer products, food and e-commerce sectors at consulting firm The Knowledge Company. The overall growth rate would depend on the company's exposure to the export markets affected by the situation in the Middle East.
The March quarter saw significant swings in input costs, with early relief in some commodities giving way to renewed pressure as the quarter progressed. According to Mint reports, copra prices, a key input for coconut oil, have been a notable example. After surging by 130% over the past two years, prices fell about 35% this year due to increased supply from Tamil Nadu and Kerala. Rising crude oil prices linked to the ongoing war in energy-rich West Asia have had a cascading impact across cost lines—from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and aluminium to plastics—flagging cost pressures. Food commodities have also firmed up, with global wheat prices on the rise and sugar trading at six-month highs. Goldman Sachs notes that the damage to local production has already been significant, with crude oil production from OPEC down by 7 million barrels per day in March. Oil prices are likely to hover around $100 per barrel, raising India's import costs considerably.
Amid weak sentiment and broad selloff, shares of HUL hit a 52-week low of ₹2,022.50 on 2 April on the National Stock Exchange, even as the company recalibrates pricing amid rising input costs. As reported by Mint, the FMCG major this week acknowledged taking selective price hikes across its portfolio, citing volatility in key raw materials. A company spokesperson stated that "given current commodity inflation in crude, palm oil and plastics, we are taking selective price increases across our portfolio. While making any price changes, we always ensure that we maintain a consumer price-value equation." In this high oil price environment, Goldman Sachs suggests that investing in specific stocks that hold up in a high oil price environment makes more sense, with ONGC benefiting as an upstream oil player and sugar companies like Balrampur Chini Mills being beneficiaries due to government ethanol blending programs.
Operationally, the reporting quarter reflects a stable but uneven demand environment. According to Mint reports, volume growth showed sequential improvement, supported by trade channel normalization. The rationalization in goods and services tax (GST) rates in September 2025, which saw rates for many goods and services cut, has led to short-term supply chain disruptions as companies recalibrated pricing. Dabur said its India FMCG business is likely to post a 'high single-digit growth' in the March quarter, with the home & personal care business continuing to operate in a high-growth lane, sustaining mid-teens expansion. However, the food and beverages segment remains subdued, expected to grow in low single digits despite pockets of strength.
Multiple risks are converging for the sector, with India's retail inflation now starting to inch up. According to Mint reports, consumer price index-based inflation was at 3.4% in March, up from 3.21% in February and 2.74% in January. Geopolitical exposure is a key variable, with companies such as Dabur and Emami potentially seeing impact at the consolidated level due to their presence in the MENA region, which accounts for about 6-8% of revenue. Weather risks are also emerging, with ratings agency Icra flagging the India Meteorological Department forecast of a below-normal South-West monsoon this year as a potential upside risk to food inflation. Goldman Sachs notes that global visible oil inventories have declined by 130 million barrels since the conflict began, with Polymarket bets putting a 92% chance of Brent staying at $105 in mid June.
