India's fertiliser sales showed resilience in June 2026 despite challenging weather conditions, according to official data reported by Business Standard. Urea sales dropped only 2.63% to 3.33 million tonnes compared to the same period last year, while DAP sales fell 1.22% to 0.81 million tonnes. The data also revealed that muriate of potash sales declined 19.05% to 0.17 million tonnes during the month. This performance came despite a nearly 37% monsoon deficit and more than 21% drop in kharif crop area in June 2026. Several experts believe this resilience reflects farmers' hope that the overall agricultural season might remain close to 'normal' despite the patchy monsoon conditions in June. The adequate fertiliser stock levels also supported sales during the period.
International fertiliser prices showed significant improvement in June 2026, providing relief to domestic consumers, as reported by Business Standard. International urea prices were 45% higher between June 2025 and June 2026, while DAP prices increased 21.2% during the same period. The price relief was attributed to easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, though prices remained higher than the corresponding period last year. This development helped moderate earlier concerns about elevated global fertiliser costs pushing up India's fertiliser subsidy estimates. The latest data shows that international prices of all major fertilisers had come down sharply compared to May 2026, but still remained higher than last year levels.
Despite the recent price relief, fertiliser subsidy estimates for FY27 remain significantly higher than previous years, according to Business Standard reports. India had estimated the FY27 fertiliser subsidy at around ₹1.7 trillion in the February Budget before the Iran war started. However, under various scenarios, the subsidy could increase substantially. Under an optimistic scenario assuming 2% decline in fertiliser consumption due to anticipated El Niño conditions in 2026, the subsidy could reach ₹2.42 trillion. A moderate stress scenario projects the subsidy at ₹2.85 trillion, while prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could push it to ₹3.32 trillion. As per a latest paper from ICRIER, these estimates reflect the continued pressure on government finances from higher fertiliser costs, even after recent global price corrections.
The resilient sales performance despite challenging weather conditions suggests that farmers maintained optimism about the overall agricultural season, as reported by Business Standard. Urea, which is majorly consumed during the kharif sowing season as it is extensively used in paddy and maize crops, showed the most resilient performance among the major fertiliser categories. However, the elevated subsidy estimates reflect the continued pressure on government finances from higher fertiliser costs, even after recent global price corrections. The adequate fertiliser stock levels also supported sales during the period, with farmers remaining hopeful that the overall agricultural season might remain close to 'normal' despite the patchy monsoon conditions in June.
