MCX Silver July futures are approaching a crucial resistance band near Rs 3.06 lakh-Rs 3.15 lakh per kilogram as global silver prices strengthen and analysts maintain bullish sentiment. According to Kotak Securities' latest technical levels report, MCX Silver July futures are currently trading around Rs 2,98,191 per kg, with immediate resistance seen at Rs 3,02,988. A sustained move above this level could open the door towards Rs 3,05,951, while the next major hurdle stands at Rs 3,15,544, a level traders are closely watching for a potential breakout extension.
In the international market, spot silver is hovering near $86.75 per ounce, with resistance levels placed at $88.30, $89.30 and $92.45, signalling that global momentum remains supportive for the white metal. This international strength is providing underlying support for domestic silver prices, even as they adjust to India's revised import cost structure following duty changes.
According to Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities, domestic silver prices are adjusting to India's revised import cost structure following duty changes. However, he emphasizes that the current rally is still largely linked to overseas trends and currency movements. "What we are seeing in domestic prices today is a mechanical re-pricing to a new import parity, not a fundamental rally. The duty is now a fixed cost embedded in the price," Banerjee stated. He noted that gold and silver in India will continue to be driven by international LBMA spot price, USD/INR exchange rate, and domestic premium or discount over import parity.
The customs duty hikes on gold and silver are creating significant market impact, with jewellery stocks emerging as key focus areas for investors. Titan Company, Kalyan Jewellers, and Senco Gold are among the stocks that are expected to face increased scrutiny as the new import cost structure takes effect. These companies, which have significant exposure to precious metals, are likely to experience varying degrees of pressure as the revised duty structure affects their operational costs and pricing strategies.
Banerjee maintains that the brokerage remains structurally bullish on precious metals over the longer term, citing the global de-dollarisation theme, central bank buying, and currency-debasement hedging as multi-year drivers. "Our structural view on gold and silver remains constructive. The global de-dollarisation theme, central bank buying, and currency-debasement hedging are all multi-year drivers that operate independently of any domestic tax decision," he explained. The brokerage expects international gold to move towards $6,000 an ounce over the next 12 to 18 months, with silver positioned as a meaningful beneficiary alongside.
