Continued disruptions at three major Russian crude oil loading ports are expected to significantly alter supplies to India, the world's fourth largest refiner. According to the International Energy Agency's April 2026 oil market report, Ukrainian drone strikes on March 23rd targeted the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk following earlier attacks on the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. Together, these three ports accounted for around 68% of seaborne oil exports in 2025 from Russian ports, comprising 72% crude and 28% products. The latest developments show that daily shipments have fallen by approximately 880,000 barrels as a direct result of attacks on key facilities, translating to a $100 million daily revenue hit based on Urals crude prices, representing a significant 13% of Russia's estimated 6.6 million barrels per day export volume.
The disruptions pose particular challenges for India's refining sector, as 80% of India's Russian crude imports in 2025 originated from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk. As reported by the IEA, Indian total crude imports fell by 760,000 barrels per day month-on-month in March 2026, and any prolonged disruption to Russian port availability could significantly affect Indian refining operations. During March 2026, India unloaded 2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil, while China received 1.8 million barrels per day. Despite these constraints, Russia's crude oil exports from main western ports increased to about 2 million barrels per day in early April, compared to an average of 1.9 million bpd in March, demonstrating the system's capacity to redirect some flows. The extension of US sanctions relief on Russian oil has provided crucial support to Indian refiners, preventing operational difficulties related to payment, insurance, and logistics for already shipped oil cargoes.
The attacks caused significant damage to port infrastructure. At Primorsk, approximately 8 of 18 crude storage tanks were destroyed, while satellite imagery showed fires and heavy smoke at Ust-Luga, potentially affecting the 160,000 barrels per day crude splitter. According to the IEA, the attacks halted Primorsk exports for several days, while Ust-Luga remained offline for more than a week. Loadings at Primorsk resumed two days after the attacks and averaged 1.4 million barrels per day in the week of April 6th, while Ust-Luga loadings remained 300,000 barrels per day below 2025 levels. The recent fire at the Tuapse Oil Refinery on April 16th, caused by Ukrainian strikes, has further complicated operations at this critical alternative hub, with the facility's operational status now a key uncertainty.
The disruptions have created logistical challenges as there is no pipeline connection between the two Baltic ports, requiring upstream scheduling adjustments. As reported by the IEA, while re-routing crude to the Black Sea is technically feasible, only 23% of volumes exported last month were Russian crude from Sheskharis, with the remainder originating from Kazakhstan and loaded from the CPC terminal. The recent fire at the Tuapse Oil Refinery has left that critical alternative hub in disarray, with the facility's operational status now a key uncertainty. The Tuapse system has hard limits with annual cargo tonnage of about 71 million barrels and transshipment capacity of roughly 17 million tons per year, making it difficult to absorb the full volume of redirected flows. The market is sending contradictory signals, as Russia's fossil fuel export earnings reached a high of EUR 713 million per day in March, the highest level in two years, driven by a massive 115% month-on-month jump in seaborne crude export revenues.
According to OPEC's April 2026 monthly oil market report, refinery utilization rates in selected Asia (Japan, China, India, Singapore and South Korea) increased to an average of 91.08% in March, corresponding to a throughput of 26.93 million barrels per day. Compared with the previous month, utilization rates were down 4.9 percentage points, while throughput was lower by 1.44 million barrels per day. In March, twelve Indian refineries processed Russian crude, compared with seven in February 2026, as reported by the IEA. The physical damage to Russia's oil infrastructure is translating into a clear, sustained financial drain on the Kremlin, with the $100 million daily revenue loss directly reducing funding available for its war economy, potentially pressuring the Kremlin's ability to sustain military operations over weeks and months. The extension of US sanctions relief on Russian oil has contributed to price stabilization and prevented a sharp reduction in supply, reinforcing the eastward diversion of Russian crude toward Asian markets.
