India nearly doubled its planned coal mining capacity to 638 million metric tonnes per annum (mtpa) in 2025, up from 329 mtpa a year earlier, according to a report by Global Energy Monitor. This dramatic increase accounted for almost all of the growth in the global coal project pipeline, which expanded 11% to 2,521 mtpa during the same period. As reported by Reuters, this surge in proposed coal mine developments highlights New Delhi's efforts to boost domestic coal production to meet rising power demand, even as renewable energy capacity expands rapidly. The increase comes despite significant shifts in global energy markets, with Global Energy Monitor reporting that wind and solar overtook coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 2025, highlighting the strategic balance India faces between meeting current energy needs and preparing for a potentially declining coal market.
The increase in planned capacity reflects New Delhi's efforts to boost domestic coal production to meet rising power demand, even as renewable energy capacity expands rapidly. As reported by Global Energy Monitor, the government has set ambitious targets of nearly 1.15 billion metric tonnes in coal production for fiscal 2025/26 and 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030. Most of India's proposed new capacity is concentrated in the eastern states of Jharkhand and Odisha, positioning these regions as key growth areas for the country's coal sector. The report notes that India's Ministry of Coal had set an ambitious target of nearly 1.15 billion tonnes of raw coal production for FY2025-26, citing growing energy requirements from heatwaves, economic growth and energy-security concerns. More than 20 new coal mines, with aggregate capacity of over 80 Mtpa, were planned to be operationalised during this period.
The expansion comes despite significant shifts in global energy markets, with Global Energy Monitor reporting that wind and solar overtook coal in the global electricity mix for the first time in 2025. The report also noted that while coal mine proposals increased, new capacity additions fell nearly 40% in 2025 to 113 mtpa, driven by declines in China and Australia. This contrasts with India's aggressive expansion plans, highlighting the country's continued reliance on coal despite global trends toward renewable energy. The concentration is particularly evident in actual mine development, with only around 113 Mtpa of new coal mining capacity entering operation in 2025, marking a new decade low for coal mine commissioning. The report found that around three-quarters of proposed capacity consists of greenfield mines, rather than expansions of existing operations, with India accounting for approximately 80% of its proposed capacity through greenfield projects.
Despite the capacity expansion, the rapid growth in planned mining capacity could leave producers exposed if coal demand weakens faster than expected, according to the Global Energy Monitor report. The analysis comes as the International Energy Agency forecasts that global coal demand will plateau by 2030, suggesting potential challenges for India's ambitious coal production targets. The report highlights a widening divide between global coal demand trends and planned supply, with the gap between slowing demand and expanding project pipelines raising concerns about future project economics and the possibility of stranded assets. The findings suggest that India and China are likely to remain central to the trajectory of the coal industry over the coming decade, even as coal-fired electricity generation declined 0.6% in 2025 and coal demand grew by less than 0.5% globally.
