Gold prices in India have lost significant momentum, with MCX gold futures for August 5 trading at ₹1,49,915 per 10 grams, down 2.5% from previous levels. The precious metal has slipped below the crucial ₹1,50,853 support zone and is now trading near ₹1,51,000, marking a sharp reversal from earlier gains. At 6:15 PM, MCX gold rate was trading significantly lower by ₹3,771, or 2.5%, at ₹1,49,915 per 10 grams, while MCX silver price has fallen 5.1% to ₹2,38,881 per kg. The decline comes as gold prices extended gains for a fifth consecutive session as optimism over the US-Iran peace deal eased expectations of US Federal Reserve rate hikes, though investors are now awaiting further details on the peace deal. According to Upstox News Desk, the price is below the 20-period and 50-period EMAs, suggesting that the short-term momentum has turned weak again. The immediate resistance is now ₹1,50,853–₹152,500, while ₹1,46,444 remains the next important support.
A preliminary agreement to end the war in the Gulf has been signed by the US and Iran, US President Donald Trump said, though details have yet to be made public and both countries said a permanent truce is yet to be negotiated. The latest surge in precious metals prices came as US and Iranian officials announced a peace deal to end their conflict, halt the US blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports from Business Standard, spot gold rose 2.7% to $4,334.48 per ounce as of 0857 GMT, hitting its highest level since June 9 and extending gains for a third straight session. The pact will be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland, according to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. US President Donald Trump confirmed the deal was "now complete" and announced that oil shipments from the Persian Gulf could soon resume, including the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian ports. However, details of the agreement have not been released publicly, while both countries have indicated that negotiations on a permanent truce are still pending. As noted by CNBC TV18, markets remain cautious as details of any agreement are still unclear.
Investor attention is firmly on the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the first under US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. According to Kotak Securities, markets have reduced expectations of further monetary tightening, with the probability of a December rate hike easing to 56% from nearly 70% earlier. Kotak Securities noted that any indication of a softer or more accommodative stance could provide additional support to bullion prices, as lower interest rate expectations generally support precious metals by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. The Fed decision comes as gold prices have gained for five consecutive sessions amid geopolitical tensions, with the peace deal significantly impacting Federal Reserve policy expectations. Investors now await the Federal Reserve policy decision and remarks, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged.
From a technical perspective, MCX gold has failed to extend the recent recovery and is now trading below the ₹1,50,853 support zone, according to Upstox News Desk. The DMI setup also confirms weakness, while ADX is near 19, indicating mild bearish pressure, but the trend strength is still moderate. Silver has failed to sustain above the ₹2,47,957 zone and slipped towards ₹2,43,600, trading below both the 20-period and 50-period EMAs which weakens the recovery structure. The immediate resistance is now placed at ₹2,47,957, and unless silver moves back above this level, the bias may remain weak. Crude oil remains under pressure and is trading near ₹7,027, below both the 20-period and 50-period EMAs, with immediate support at ₹7,019. The DMI setup shows a negative bias, while ADX is near 27, suggesting that sellers still have the upper hand, though the trend strength has cooled from the previous session.
In contrast to domestic markets, gold continued to gain in global markets ahead of US and Iran's plan to sign an interim peace deal that is expected to ease global inflationary pressures due to the war. According to Bloomberg data, the precious metal traded around $4,335 an ounce, following more than 6% surge over the past four sessions. The reopening of the key global supply route is expected to ease an energy supply crisis that has raised inflation risks and prompted many central banks to keep rates on hold or even hike them, which is negative for non-yielding bullion. US President Donald Trump repeatedly assured that the Strait of Hormuz can fully re-open by Friday, providing additional support to global gold prices despite the mixed domestic performance. Kotak Securities noted that lower rate-hike expectations, continued central bank purchases and portfolio diversification trends remain supportive for bullion, with 45% of global reserve managers planning to increase gold holdings over the next year according to World Gold Council data.
