Gold and silver prices edged lower on Friday (April 10) as investors reassessed safe-haven demand amid a fragile US-Iran ceasefire and mixed global cues, even as underlying geopolitical risks and inflation concerns kept downside limited. COMEX gold was last at $4,783.70 per ounce, down $34.30 or 0.71%, while COMEX silver slipped to $75.540 per ounce, down 1.17%. The pullback comes as Asian equities ticked higher with MSCI's Asia-Pacific index rising 0.5%, signalling a tentative shift toward risk assets. However, gains remained capped as markets questioned the durability of the ceasefire and monitored ongoing tensions involving Israel and Lebanon. Analysts noted that gold's reaction reflects a balancing act between easing immediate risk sentiment and persistent uncertainty, with the current ceasefire appearing fragile due to reported violations and lack of clarity.
Gold and silver prices opened lower on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) following minutes from the US Federal Reserve's March 17-18 meeting that showed a growing number of policymakers favour further rate hikes to bring inflation closer to the 2% target, particularly amid risks linked to the Iran war. MCX silver futures for May 2026 delivery plunged ₹4,785, or 2%, to ₹2,35,133 per kg, while gold futures for June 2026 delivery declined ₹1,229, or 0.8%, to ₹1,50,647 per 10 grams. In international markets, spot gold was nearly unchanged at $4,715.42 per ounce as of 0052 GMT, while US gold futures for June delivery slipped 0.8% to $4,739.20. Spot silver declined 0.4% to $73.83 per ounce, as reported by The Economic Times. Jigar Trivedi of IndusInd Securities noted that gold June futures on the MCX have strong support near ₹1,50,000 per 10 grams, with resistance around ₹1,53,000 per 10 grams, indicating a broad trading range with an overall positive bias.
Higher inflation could complicate the US Federal Reserve's rate trajectory, with recent data showing the core PCE price index rising 0.4% for a second straight month, reinforcing expectations that interest rates may stay elevated for longer. Higher yields typically weigh on gold, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, with the US 10-year Treasury yield remaining elevated near 4.28% and the dollar index edging higher. Renisha Chainani, Head of Research at Augmont, expects gold prices to trade in the range of ₹1.44-1.54 lakh in domestic markets this week, while Aksha Kamboj, Vice President at the India Bullion & Jewellers Association, suggested that while global developments support gold and silver, periodic volatility remains likely. Market participants are now closely tracking upcoming data releases, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for February and weekly jobless claims, which could offer further cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Oil markets continue reflecting heightened volatility with Brent crude hovering near $96 per barrel, as reported by CNBC TV18. Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, highlighted that prompt WTI spreads remained elevated at around $10 per barrel, signalling ongoing uncertainty despite the ceasefire. The supply risks from the Gulf region continue to weigh on markets, with crude oil prices remaining volatile amid uncertainty ahead of a key US deadline tied to ongoing Iran negotiations. These developments have pushed oil prices higher, raising inflation concerns and influencing expectations around interest rates—key factors that typically impact demand for non-yielding assets like gold. Recent Israeli strikes on Lebanon and concerns over potential retaliation from Iran have kept geopolitical risks elevated, with reports of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz adding to market nervousness. Iranian media reported that oil tanker transit through the strait had been halted after Israel conducted military strikes on Lebanon, while a senior Iranian official said three provisions of the ceasefire proposal had already been breached.
Augmont Enterprise Private noted that precious metals are currently "caught between ceasefire optimism and escalating regional risks," with safe-haven demand supported by geopolitical tensions but gains capped by macro uncertainties. The firm highlighted that gold has seen a technical breakout above $4,800 per ounce (around ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams), indicating bullish momentum, with a potential upside target of $5,000 per ounce (₹1.59 lakh per 10 grams). Silver has also broken above $76.50 per ounce (around ₹2.43 lakh per kg), with further upside targets at $82 and $87 per ounce. Brian Lan, Managing Director at GoldSilver Central, said "Gold is not looking to do much at this moment… there is still a lot of speculation on what's going to happen after the ceasefire," adding that prices could consolidate in the near term. Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, noted that "In the short term, gold is likely to remain range-bound, with continued volatility rather than a clear directional trend," with the near-term direction hinging on both inflation data and geopolitical developments. For now, precious metals appear to be navigating a narrow range, caught between easing risk aversion and persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
