Silver prices in India witnessed a sharp rebound on Friday, with MCX silver September futures rallying ₹2,699, or 1.12%, to ₹2,43,350 per kg after hitting an intraday high of ₹2,44,950, rising as much as 1.78% from the previous closing price. The white metal surged by ₹5,901, or 2.46%, from the day's low of ₹2,39,049, marking a significant turnaround from recent corrections. According to NDTV Profit, this represents a strong recovery from the sharp decline that had seen silver prices fall by approximately ₹7,500 from their August 21 closing level of ₹2,46,597. The contract moved between an intraday high of ₹2,44,950 and a low of ₹2,39,049, highlighting the volatility in precious metals trading and the market's responsiveness to global developments. In the international market, silver has climbed nearly 20% from its recent lows, supported by a rally in gold, improving risk sentiment, resilient industrial demand, and a weaker U.S. dollar.
The latest surge in silver prices is attributed to a significant shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with investors now focusing on US Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for future outlook on interest rate trajectory. As reported by NDTV Profit, the decline in crude oil prices has cooled inflation concerns and eased worries over the US Federal Reserve interest rate hike, while the US dollar has also slipped below 99 level, lifting the appeal for precious metals. The 10-year US Treasury yield had previously edged higher to 4.65% as investors assessed fresh economic data, but the current rally suggests a reversal in sentiment. Gold's rally provides a strong tailwind for silver, as investors sought relatively cheaper alternatives during periods of sustained gold price strength. Expectations of increased infrastructure spending and a gradual recovery in industrial production in major economies have encouraged traders to price in stronger future demand, with the long-term outlook for silver consumption remaining favourable due to the global transition toward renewable energy and electrification.
MCX silver price continues to face profit-booking after the recent rally toward higher levels, with technical indicators showing mixed signals amid the current volatility. According to NDTV Profit, Ajay Kedia from Kedia Advisory sees support for MCX silver at ₹2,35,000 level and resistance at ₹2,52,000 level. The immediate resistance for silver prices is at ₹2,44,000 – ₹2,45,000, followed by ₹2,48,500 – ₹2,50,000, while immediate support is at ₹2,40,000 – ₹2,39,000, followed by ₹2,36,000 – ₹2,35,000. RSI at 55.96 remains in positive territory but has moderated from recent highs, indicating cooling momentum. As per NDTV Profit, the bias remains cautiously negative in the near term, with prices needing to reclaim and sustain above ₹2,45,000 to regain upside momentum, while a decisive break below ₹2,39,000 could resume the corrective move toward ₹2,36,000 – ₹2,35,000.
Monarch PMS expects gold prices to be in the range of $4,300-$4,700 per ounce and silver at $70-$85 per ounce by end-2026 as its base case, with a 55% probability. In its bull case, assigned a 25% probability, gold could reach $5,000-$5,600 per ounce and silver $95-$120 levels if weakness in the labour-market forces the Fed to ease repo rates. The gold-silver ratio has also normalized, rising from 46x at January's peak to around 69x, close to its 21st-century average, with Monarch PMS using 60x as its model's benchmark. Silver's supply-demand fundamentals remain supportive, with a sixth consecutive annual deficit, 762 million ounces drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021 and mine supply broadly flat for a decade. With paper claims on COMEX roughly 5.6 times registered physical inventory, physical tightness is expected to amplify upside moves if demand strengthens. Investment demand has been somewhat volatile, influenced by changing expectations regarding interest rates and economic growth, but the broader market continues to point toward a gradual tightening of fundamentals, providing underlying support to prices.
