Gold prices experienced a minor uptick in early Asian trade on Wednesday, following a surge of more than 2% in the previous session as sharp drops in oil prices eased inflation concerns. The recovery comes as investors await the outcome of US midterm elections later in the day, with gold prices inching higher after surging more than 2% in the previous session. Fundamentals supporting the move include oil prices falling around 1% on Tuesday to their lowest level in nearly four weeks as Tehran said contacts between Iran and the United States to end their eight-month war were continuing after days of Iranian talks with Qatari mediators ended with altered proposals but no breakthrough. The decline in oil prices has helped ease inflation concerns that had previously weighed on precious metals markets. On the COMEX, gold futures were trading at $3,963.20 per ounce, up $22.80 or 0.58% from the previous close of $3,940.80 an ounce, with prices touching a high of $3,970.20 and a low of $3,928.20 an ounce. COMEX silver futures gained 0.48% to $49.990 per ounce, against the previous close of $49.825 an ounce, while in the spot market, gold rose 0.2% to $3,934.75 per ounce and silver slipped 0.2% to $49.67 per ounce in early Asian trade. On the MCX, gold prices ended flat while silver gained momentum to close higher, with spot gold dipping 0.3% to $3,948.75 per ounce and US gold futures for December delivery gaining 0.1% to $3,943.20. Domestic gold futures for December 4 delivery held steady at ₹1,39,312 per 10 grams, while silver futures edged 0.92% to ₹1,78,040 per kilogram in early trading.
Gold rates in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) market witnessed a sharp climb of nearly ₹28,500 in a single day, just as investors prepare to grab opportunities in the Dhanteras and Diwali festivals. These rates are applicable in cities like Dubai, Ras Al Khaimah, Sharjah, Abu Dhabi, Ajman and Fujairah. In INR terms, 24-carat gold price soared by ₹29,392 to ₹12,33,780 per 100 grams, while 10 grams gold surged by ₹2,839 to ₹1,23,378. 22-carat gold price jumped by ₹25,811 to ₹11,42,150 per 100 grams and rose by ₹2,581 to ₹1,14,215 per 10 grams. Additionally, 18-carat gold rates are up by ₹20,907 to ₹9,34,369 per 100 grams. In local currency, 24-carat gold price surged by AED 1,100 to AED 47,800 per 100 grams, with 22-carat gold available at AED 44,250 higher by AED 1,000. Gold rates in India jumped by ₹2,000 to ₹2,700 across 24-carat, 22-carat and 18-carat in cities, though gold remains expensive in India than UAE's souk market.
MCX gold futures for December delivery rose sharply by ₹510 or 0.37% to settle at ₹1,39,962 per 10 grams, with business turnover of 876 lots indicating fresh speculative positions. Silver futures for the same delivery month gained around 2.6% to close at ₹1,83,779 per kg. As of Tuesday, November 3rd, 24-carat gold prices surged by ₹2,700 per 10 grams to cost ₹1,39,640 per 10 grams, while 22-carat gold prices jumped by ₹250 to ₹1,28,640 per 10 grams. 100 grams of 24-carat gold now retail at ₹1,39,640, while 22-carat gold stands at ₹1,28,000 per 100 grams. City-wise rates show Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, and Hyderabad all mirroring this rise, with 925 sterling silver prices stable at ₹1,84,140 per kg for the second consecutive day. According to Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.com, the recovery follows a steep sell-off that pushed international gold to a one-year low and silver below $50 an ounce, with spot gold rebounding to $3,954.41 an ounce on Monday. On the MCX, gold has support at ₹1,38,800-₹1,38,000 and resistance at ₹1,40,000-₹1,40,550, while silver has support at ₹1,77,700-₹1,75,000 and resistance at ₹1,81,400-₹1,83,800.
Markets are now focused on the US midterm elections for clues on the fiscal policy outlook and broader investor sentiment, with traders currently seeing a 78% probability of a rate hike in December according to CME's FedWatch tool. This represents a significant shift from 80% a week ago, as per ICICI Securities Commodities Report. Investors this week will focus on key US developments, particularly the US mid-term election, unemployment figures and Non-Farm Payrolls data, which could provide further clarity on the Fed's future policy stance. Financial analysts speculate a potential interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December to combat inflation, while the Bank of England is anticipated to tackle similar issues this Thursday. Election outcome could take days after the election to call control of the House, as was the case in the 2022 midterm elections, while calling control of the Senate could take even longer. Even if the opposition gains control of Congress and takes office in January, this would not automatically bring an immediate end to the conflict, as the President retains considerable authority as Commander-in-Chief to conduct ongoing military operations. Investors were also preparing for a potentially strong performance by Democrats in Tuesday's US midterm elections, a development that could lead to greater volatility across asset prices. US job openings rose sharply in September, while layoffs declined to their lowest level in 1-1/2 years, indicating that the labour market remained relatively strong despite modest employment growth during the month.
High gold prices are weighing on jewellery purchases and investment demand in India, with the World Gold Council (WGC) saying India's gold demand is expected to fall to a six-year low in 2026. However, industry experts point to a shift in purchasing behaviour, with consumers exploring smaller purchases and digital formats alongside traditional jewellery buying. "As gold prices climb, Indian households are not buying less gold; they are buying it differently," said Sudeep Chatterjee, CEO of STOEX. Consumers are moving from deciding how many grams of gold to buy to setting aside a fixed amount regularly, with fractional ownership allowing purchases in amounts as low as ₹10 making gold accumulation more accessible to younger and first-time buyers. Digital gold purchases are picking up ahead of Dhanteras, with Gaurav Mathur, Founder and CEO of SafeGold, saying purchases were running at 1.5 to two times normal business levels. More than 1 lakh customers have opted to lease their gold, earning a yield paid in gold, while fewer customers are seeking physical delivery compared with last year's Dhanteras. Jewellery demand has also weakened, with data from the World Gold Council showing that jewellery demand declined 25% in the US, 15% in India and 28% in China during the second quarter. Central bank activity presents another potential headwind following a period of strong buying earlier this year, with BofA flagging the possibility that central banks could turn sellers amid escalating Middle East tensions.
