Gold prices have surged 63% year-over-year to around ₹1.55 lakh per 10 grams, up sharply from sub-₹1 lakh levels a year ago, creating a stark divergence in market performance. According to latest reports, this rally has strengthened investment demand while delivering mixed results for jewellery companies. The price surge has made gold increasingly unaffordable for retail buyers, leading to visible shifts in consumption patterns with customers opting for lighter jewellery, exchanging old gold, or deferring purchases altogether. As noted by Anil R, footfall remains steady but ticket sizes have shrunk significantly.
Jewellery retailers have experienced a remarkable turnaround, with shares climbing 11-23% over the past month, significantly outperforming the 3.5% rise in the benchmark BSE Sensex. According to The Economic Times, this momentum is driven by strong wedding and festive demand, resilient consumer spending despite record gold prices, and sharp improvement in same-store sales growth. Domestic sales grew 32-124% year-on-year in the March quarter, with companies like PN Gadgil Jewellers reporting SSSG of 86% year-on-year leading to revenue growth of 124%, while Kalyan Jewellers achieved SSSG of over 45% with consolidated revenue growth of 65%. Titan Company reported business growth of 46% year-on-year in Q3 FY26, with same-store sales growth rising to 48% from 15% previously.
Leading jewellery brands have rolled out comprehensive pre-booking schemes and cashback offers ahead of Akshaya Tritiya 2026, which will be celebrated on April 19, 2026. Malabar Gold & Diamonds is offering up to 30% off on making charges for gold jewellery purchases, with the offer valid from April 8-20, 2026 on their online platform. Joyalukkas has launched its Akshaya Tritiya Cashback Utsav running from April 10-20, 2026, offering ₹2,000 gift vouchers for diamond purchases, ₹1,000 gift vouchers for gold jewellery, and ₹500 gift vouchers for silver jewellery. The company also provides a gold rate locking facility allowing pre-booking with just 10% advance and price protection until May 2, 2026. KISNA Diamond & Gold Jewellery has introduced a Gold Rate Protection Plan requiring a 25% advance payment to freeze prices during specified periods, while Tanishq offers gold rate protection for advance orders placed between March 11-April 22, 2026 with 25% or more advance collection.
Investor behaviour is undergoing a structural shift toward financial forms of gold, with Indian gold ETFs seeing substantial inflows of ₹24,040 crore in January 2026, more than doubling from the previous year. This contrasts sharply with global trends, where March 2026 saw record outflows of $12 billion from gold ETFs, mainly from North America, driven by changing interest rate expectations and risk-off sentiment. However, steady inflows from Asian investors, including India and China, have partly offset these Western divestments. Central banks continue to be major buyers, adding about 860 tonnes in 2025, with projections for 2026 remaining strong at around 800 tonnes, meaning gold now makes up a larger share of global official reserves.
Looking ahead, experts expect gold prices to remain strong, with forecasts suggesting prices could reach around ₹2 lakh for the next Akshaya Tritiya, supported by ongoing central bank buying and steady ETF demand. However, analysts caution that the sector faces risks of valuation compression if gold prices stabilise or correct. The Indian Rupee's sharp drop of 9.13% over the past 12 months, reaching an all-time high of 99.82 in March 2026, raises the cost of imported gold, pushing domestic prices higher. For long-term investors, ETFs appear to be the best option currently, while gold-related equities can be considered based on risk-reward, according to market analysts. The positive trend is expected to continue given strong footfalls due to the ongoing wedding season and Akshaya Tritiya, with companies focusing on franchise-led store expansion in FY27 which may support margins.
