Gold prices experienced a 2% decline on Monday as the US dollar strengthened by as much as 0.3% and fresh developments around the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns. According to Bloomberg, COMEX gold fell 2% to $4,780 per ounce, erasing most of last week's 1.7% advance, while silver plunged 2.5% to $78.75 per ounce during Asian trading hours. US gold futures for June delivery declined 1% to $4,829.40, while on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India, gold futures for June 2026 delivery fell Rs 1,590 to Rs 1,53,018 per 10 grams. Silver futures for May 2026 delivery dropped Rs 3,945, or 1.5%, to Rs 2,53,198 per kilogram. Since the beginning of the US-Iran war in late February, gold has declined roughly 9% and silver has lost around 14%, highlighting the significant impact of geopolitical tensions on precious metals.
The latest developments have cast doubt over the chances of potential peace talks in Islamabad, with President Trump indicating there was still scope for a deal while reiterating threats to target Iranian power infrastructure and bridges. According to Bloomberg, President Donald Trump said that the US Navy had fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, as Tehran warned that ships nearing the strait would be seen as breaching a ceasefire. Several vessels were compelled to turn back just hours after Iran had declared the waterway open. Iran, however, stated there was no "clear prospect" of reaching an agreement, as per the Bloomberg report. The prolonged conflict has led to a significant disruption in energy supplies, heightening inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood that central banks will keep interest rates elevated or even raise them further — a negative factor for non-yielding assets like bullion.
Gold is currently trading in a broad range with price recently attempting to break out of a sideways band between ₹1,52,800–₹1,54,500 and testing the upper Bollinger Band. According to The Times of India, the current candles near the upper band suggest mild exhaustion, with price pulling back toward the mid-band around ₹1,52,000–₹1,54,000. From a technical perspective, volatility has expanded after a squeeze phase earlier, confirming a breakout move, and sustaining above the mid-band keeps the bias bullish. However, the latest price decline suggests potential weakness in the current bullish structure. COMEX gold is trading near the $4,850–$4,900 zone, extending its recovery with price action indicating gradual stabilisation and improving short-term sentiment. On the upside, immediate resistance is placed around the $4,900–$4,950 zone, followed by a stronger hurdle near $5,000–$5,050, while a sustained breakout above these levels could open the path toward $5,150–$5,250 in the coming weeks.
Focus this week will be on preliminary PMI data from major economies and updates on the US-Iran war situation, with the ceasefire set to expire on Tuesday. According to The Times of India, there are also updates regarding China and Taiwan border agreements that could further increase market volatility. The analysis suggests that failure to hold the ₹1,55,000 level could shift the structure back into range, while any further developments regarding the US-Iran situation could continue to influence gold price movements. Market participants are also expected to track crude oil movements closely, alongside major US economic releases such as retail sales, housing data and consumer sentiment figures. Silver's outlook remains more volatile than gold, reflecting its dual precious and industrial metal role, with the white metal trading near the $81–$82 zone and gradual improvement in momentum indicating a recovery attempt.
