Silver has demonstrated remarkable resilience, recovering sharply from a nearly 10% decline to $63.31 on September 2 following Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. As reported by Business Standard, the white metal has recovered nearly 50% of its losses and was trading with a daily gain of 2.70% at $67.09 at the time of writing. The recovery was driven by dovish Fed commentary from officials who alleviated inflation concerns and identified tariffs and energy as the primary sources of inflation. Fed Governor Waller indicated his decision on rates will be heavily influenced by upcoming CPI inflation data on September 9, and he is willing to hold rates steady should inflation show a downtrend.
According to Emkay Wealth Management, gold and silver have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite recent profit booking and uncertainty around interest-rate trajectory. The wealth manager expects gold to gain another 12% upside, while silver could face resistance at $68 and $74 per ounce. As reported by CNBC TV18, gold has found strong support around $4,060 per ounce, while silver has held the $58 per ounce level over the past four to six weeks. The resilience of both metals suggests that the current consolidation could provide a base for the next phase of the cycle. Looking ahead, the outlook for gold remains particularly favourable if global monetary policy shifts towards a softer interest-rate regime for an extended period, which could reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and further strengthen the investment case for gold.
The precious metals rally has been significantly influenced by Federal Reserve policy developments and currency movements. As reported by Business Standard, the US Dollar Index declined due to dovish Fed commentary and a sharp rally in the Yen, which surged 2% against the US Dollar to the highest level in a month. Fed rate hike probability for the September 16 meeting has declined to a coin toss (50%) from 65% previously, as traders pared back rate hike bets following comforting speeches from Fed officials. The probability of the Fed hiking rates at its September 16 meeting has declined to a coin toss (50%), down from 65% seen a couple of days ago. Two-year yields at 4.32% were down 0.90% for the day, retreating sharply from the 20-month high of 4.4% reached on September 2.
Silver's outlook faces mixed supply-side pressures with varying regional dynamics. According to Business Standard, registered COMEX silver inventory at 99.31 Moz is down over 50% from the record peak of 201 Moz seen in September 2025. However, Shanghai Futures Silver Exchange on-warrant stocks daily total is noted at 1399 tons, up 455% from the cycle low of 252 tons seen in March this year, suggesting adequate supply in China. The one-month LBMA lease rate around 0% reflects no immediate supply crunch, which is negative for silver prices. China has also announced regulations to address overcapacity in the solar manufacturing industry, with Bloomberg expecting market conditions to deteriorate and accelerate closure of uncompetitive capacity.
According to Mirae Asset Sharekhan, dovish Fed commentary has eased downside pressure on silver, though high China inventories, subdued LBMA lease rates and weak ETF flows remain concerns. The metal may not fall much in the near term unless the nonfarm payroll report turns out to be a blowout or crude oil prices surge violently. For trading, dips towards $65 could be used as short-term buying opportunities for a target of $70+, though a tight stop loss is essential. Support is seen at $66-$66.30/$65/$62.90, while resistance kicks in at $68/$70.60/$72.10. The Central Bank not hiking rates despite persistent inflation for sixty-five months would once again support the narrative of owning hard assets, providing fundamental support for precious metals.
