Gold steadied near $4,800 per ounce as traders assessed prospects for diplomacy to end the Middle East conflict and ease inflation risks. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,821.44 per ounce by 0301 GMT, while US gold futures for June delivery gained 0.4% to $4,844.40. The US and Iran are considering a two-week ceasefire extension to allow more time to negotiate a peace deal, according to a person familiar with the matter, even as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains choked by a double blockade. The two sides have an 'in principle agreement' to pursue further diplomacy after an inconclusive initial round of talks in Pakistan at the weekend, as reported by the Associated Press. US President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Wednesday about reaching a deal to end the war with Iran, while warning of increasing economic pressure against Tehran if it remains defiant. President Trump said he believes the war he launched with Israel in late February is nearly over, even as a shipping blockade he announced came into effect and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained well below normal levels.
MCX Gold 5 June Futures traded at ₹1,54,689 per 10 gram, up ₹741 from previous levels, while Silver 5 May Futures rose ₹2,720 to ₹2,54,462 per kg. According to Upstox News Desk, MCX Gold is trading near the crucial resistance zone of ₹1,54,900–₹1,55,000 with price action indicating a gradual uptrend with consolidation near the highs. The short-term moving averages are trending higher, and the ADX is rising, which supports the bullish momentum. If the price breaks out above ₹1,55,000, it could trigger a move towards ₹1,57,000, with immediate support located near ₹1,52,800, followed by ₹1,51,000. Kelvin Wong from OANDA noted that the primary driver for gold gains is optimism about a US-Iran ceasefire, stating that if we start to see a break above $4,900, further potential upside cannot be ruled out towards the next intermediate resistance zone at the psychological level of $5,000.
Market participants remain cautious amid mixed signals from US-Iran talks, where optimism is balanced by the risk of failure, which could again push crude prices higher. Jateen Trivedi from LKP Securities notes that gold traded with minor losses near ₹154,200, as some profit booking emerged after the recent positive momentum, with overall momentum remaining volatile. Gold is expected to trade in a range of ₹151,000–₹156,000 in the near term, as price action continues to react to crude, dollar, and rupee movements. Praveen Singh from Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects gold to test resistance at $5000 in near term on a weaker Dollar and lower oil prices unless US-Iran talks unravel, with support at $4760/$4700. The broader outlook remains mixed, as expectations of delayed rate cuts due to energy-driven inflation continue to cap upside. In the US, traders now see a 29% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut this year, down from expectations of two reductions before the war began.
Gold and silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged by as much as 9% on Wednesday, tracking gains in precious metals on the MCX. The rally was driven by a decline in crude oil prices and renewed optimism over possible talks between the United States and Iran. Among the top performers, DSP Silver ETF and Angel One Silver ETF rose the most, each advancing 9%, while Zerodha Silver ETF climbed 8% to touch an intraday high of ₹25.75. Several other silver ETFs, including those from HDFC, State Bank of India, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Mirae Asset, recorded gains of up to 7%. Meanwhile, India's gems and jewellery exports fell sharply by 35.23% to $27,717.40 million in March due to Middle East conflict disruptions, according to the Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC).
Crude oil prices moved higher, with MCX Crude rising 11.26% to ₹8,337 per barrel as supply-disruption concerns faded on expectations of diplomacy. MCX Crude oil remained under pressure today but saw a mild intraday recovery, closing slightly higher near ₹8,540, as reported by Upstox News Desk. Brent eased to around $95.35, up nearly 8% from Monday's levels, with the technical trend score for crude rated at -3, or bearish. The oil price recovery has heightened concerns around inflation, which previously weighed on precious metals. Donald Trump said on Tuesday that discussions aimed at resolving the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran could resume in Pakistan within the next two days, following weekend negotiations that collapsed after which Washington imposed a blockade on Iranian ports. Spot silver rose 1.7% to $80.41 per ounce, while platinum gained 1.2% to $2,135.58, and palladium was up 0.9% at $1,587.39. Spot gold prices have fallen more than 8% since the Iran war began in late February amid concerns that elevated energy prices could feed into inflation and keep global interest rates higher.
