Gold and silver prices rebounded on the MCX on Wednesday, with gold climbing above the ₹1.50 lakh mark as investors awaited US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy cues. December gold futures were trading at ₹1,50,130 per 10 grams at 10:39 am, up ₹1,307 or 0.88% from the previous close of ₹1,48,823. Gold had earlier touched an intraday high of ₹1,50,439, gaining ₹1,616 from the previous close, while silver futures for the same expiry were at ₹2,26,506 per kg, up ₹1,056 or 0.47%. This recovery comes after gold prices faced pressure in recent sessions from a stronger dollar, a hawkish stance from the US Federal Reserve, expectations of another rate hike in October and rising US Treasury yields. According to latest technical analysis, the yellow metal is showing some signs of improvement as the RSI is recovering at 44, while the MACD histogram is narrowing in negative territory, indicating that the recent selling momentum could be moderating. The recovery in gold prices follows a slip in oil prices on Wednesday amid reports of higher supply through the Strait of Hormuz, with the development coming as Saudi Arabia's crude exports through East-West pipeline hinted towards recovery following disruption earlier in the month due to drone attacks.
Gold prices are remaining in focus as buyers weigh elevated prices ahead of the festive and wedding season, with the latest price environment showing cautious festive optimism among consumers. According to the World Gold Council's India Gold Market Update report dated September 17, consumers are holding back discretionary purchases after a sharp rally and subsequent pullback in gold prices over the previous two months. The report describes the current mood as "cautious festive optimism", with industry feedback indicating that consumers have moved into a "wait-and-watch mode" for discretionary purchases. Retailers are also being cautious about building inventory and are replenishing stocks based on actual demand, with some manufacturers reporting delays in retailers taking up orders. The report points to a shift towards lighter-weight jewellery, allowing buyers to manage the impact of high gold prices while continuing with wedding and festive purchases.
Markets are now pricing in a roughly 50% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in October and a 92% chance of a hike in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Latest comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams seem to have eased immediate rate hike fears, with Williams saying "there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information" before the Fed's October meeting, as reported by CNBC. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its latest meeting on September 16, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The central bank said inflation remains elevated and that monetary policy is aimed at supporting a return of inflation to its 2% target. These expectations are supporting the U.S. dollar and pushing Treasury yields higher, creating headwinds for non-yielding assets like gold. However, BNP Paribas Asset Management notes that if the Federal Reserve hikes rates again, the gold price will likely correct, but we expect it would be limited.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, sees support at ₹1,49,000 for MCX gold December futures, while ₹1,50,500 is the immediate resistance level. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, expects gold to face resistance within the range of ₹1,50,000 to ₹1,50,700, followed by ₹1,52,000 to ₹1,52,600, on the upside. On the downside, he sees support at ₹1,48,000 to ₹1,47,300 and then ₹1,46,000 to ₹1,45,300. For short-term traders, Trivedi sees an opportunity for an intraday recovery, with a target of ₹1,50,500 to ₹1,50,800, provided the ₹1,49,000 support holds. However, Ponmudi is looking for confirmation before turning more positive on the rebound, stating that "a sustained move above ₹1,50,000 is needed to strengthen the rebound". The technical setup also shows gold's relative strength against silver, both on MCX and in international markets, with the divergence being broadly in line with the global trend rather than being driven by a domestic-specific factor.
Gold rates showed some variation across major Indian cities on September 30, with 24K gold priced at ₹1,49,570 per 10 grams in Chennai and Mumbai, ₹1,48,940 in Delhi, and ₹1,49,620 in Vadodara and Ahmedabad. 22K gold was priced at ₹1,37,100 in Chennai, Mumbai, Delhi, and Kolkata, ₹1,37,250 in Delhi, and ₹1,37,150 in Vadodara and Ahmedabad. 18K gold was priced at ₹1,14,700 in Chennai, ₹1,12,180 in Mumbai, ₹1,12,330 in Delhi, and ₹1,12,230 in Vadodara and Ahmedabad. Silver rates were uniform across major cities at ₹2,400 per 10 grams, ₹24,000 per 100 grams, and ₹2,40,000 per kilogram. The final price paid by jewellery buyers can be higher after GST, making charges and other applicable premiums. As per Bullions.co.in, the 24 Karat gold rate in India stood at ₹15,025 per gram, or ₹1,50,250 per 10 grams, as of 10:10 AM IST on Wednesday, September 30, 2026, with gold up by ₹1,390 or 0.93% during the day.
