Human-induced warming reached a record 1.37 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2025, according to the latest Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report published on June 11 in Earth System Science Data. The report warns that the world will cross the 1.5 degree Celsius warming threshold around 2030 if emissions continue at current levels, as confirmed by analysis from more than 70 scientists from 56 institutions across 17 countries. As reported by Business Standard, 2025 was the third-warmest year on record globally, continuing a run of exceptionally hot years despite La Niña conditions that typically cool global temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has also forecast that the probability of at least one year between 2026 and 2030 exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius is 91 percent, with a 75 percent chance that the average temperature across the entire five-year period will surpass that level. The latest assessment estimates that average global warming over the 2016-2025 period reached 1.26°C relative to the 1850-1900 baseline, with 1.24°C attributed directly to human activities, demonstrating that nearly all observed warming can be traced to greenhouse gases and other human influences rather than natural climate variability.
The most consequential finding concerns the planet's remaining carbon budget - the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while preserving a reasonable chance of limiting long-term warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the latest assessment, only about 130 billion tonnes of additional carbon dioxide can be emitted from the beginning of 2026 if the world hopes to stay within that limit. At current rates of emissions, scientists estimate that budget would be exhausted in around three years. The report found that global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 56.8 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, up from the previous decade's average of 54.6 gigatonnes. According to the IGCC report, concentrations of the three major greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – have all risen since 2019, with CO2 now at 425.6 parts per million. As reported by Phys.org, Earth's Energy Imbalance has more than doubled compared with the 1976-1995 period, with scientists considering this a critical measure showing how much additional warming is already locked in. The study notes that global greenhouse-gas emissions averaged about 54.6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually between 2015 and 2024 – the highest sustained level ever recorded, with carbon dioxide remaining the largest contributor produced primarily through burning coal, oil and natural gas.
The most significant development is that human-induced warming is now increasing at approximately 0.27°C per decade, matching the fastest rate ever observed in the instrumental record and representing an all-time high rate of warming. This distinction is important because individual years can be influenced by natural factors such as El Niño, volcanic eruptions or changes in solar activity, while the long-term warming trend reflects the cumulative impact of human actions. One of the report's most significant findings is that human influence now explains nearly all of the long-term warming observed globally. The study estimates that of the 1.37 degrees Celsius warming recorded in 2025, around 1.37 degrees Celsius was caused by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation and industrial emissions. The previous IPCC assessment had estimated a lower long-term rate of human-induced warming, but the updated analysis now places the likely range between 0.2°C and 0.4°C per decade, with 0.27°C as the central estimate. This acceleration suggests that the underlying human-caused warming signal is becoming increasingly dominant, with El Niño's influence having weakened substantially by 2025 yet global temperatures remained among the hottest ever recorded, indicating that natural climate fluctuations are no longer masking the human-caused warming trend.
The report highlighted growing signs of climate stress in the oceans, with the average number of marine heatwave days having more than tripled since 1991, reaching about 65 days in 2025. This trend raises concerns about impacts on marine ecosystems, fisheries and weather patterns. According to the IGCC report, global mean sea level has risen by around 23 centimetres since 1901, with the current rate accelerating to nearly 3.84 millimetres per year. The report also found that global sea levels reached a new record in 2025, with the oceans absorbing much of the excess heat and average sea surface temperatures hitting their second highest level on record. The study notes that most of the extra heat ends up in the oceans, which helps explain the extraordinary marine heatwaves and record sea-surface temperatures witnessed in recent years. The report also found signs that the growth of CO₂ emissions is slowing, although global emissions remain near record highs. For the first time, the assessment included marine heatwaves as a core climate indicator, reflecting their growing importance in climate monitoring. Marine heatwaves can have detrimental impacts on marine ecosystems and socio-economic systems, influence air-sea carbon exchange, impact marine biological productivity, acidity and oxygen levels, and influence extreme weather over land.
The report reveals that the Earth's energy imbalance—the difference between incoming solar radiation and outgoing heat—has more than doubled over recent decades and is now at an all-time high. This indicates that the planet is accumulating heat faster than at any time in modern records, with the climate system storing heat faster than it did a few decades ago. Dr. Karina Von Schuckmann from Mercator Ocean International in France explained that the rapidly growing energy imbalance is driving transformations across all climate system components, including ocean and land warming, permafrost melt, ice loss, and rising sea levels. The findings arrive as countries prepare for the next round of climate negotiations and as extreme weather events become more frequent across the globe. Higher levels of global warming increase the likelihood of more frequent and intense heatwaves, erratic monsoon behaviour, extreme rainfall events, glacier melt in the Himalayas and rising urban heat stress. For India, where average temperatures are rising faster than the global average in some regions, the findings underscore growing risks to agriculture, water security and public health. The report also found that land temperatures have increased by 1.81 degrees Celsius from 1850–1900 to 2016–2025, with ocean temperatures rising by 1.03 degrees Celsius over the same period, maintaining the ratio of land to ocean warming at approximately 1.75. Scientists warn that the world could move beyond the Paris Agreement's aspirational 1.5°C threshold within the next few years if emissions remain near current levels.
