Copper prices have reached new heights with COMEX September copper futures rising 1.8% to $6.727 per pound, equivalent to approximately $14,830 per ton, surpassing the previous high of $6.7140 per pound set on August 12 to hit a new contract record high. According to TradingKey, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) strengthened in tandem, rising to about $14,437 per ton, hitting an intraday high of $14,437.5/mt and approaching the historical record high of $14,527.5 per ton set in January, with a price spread of about $400 per ton compared with COMEX copper. The rally reflects a shortage of copper available outside the US rather than a global deficit of the metal, which is critical for power grids, electric vehicles and AI data centers. As per Barchart.com, copper prices finished 2025 sharply higher by +41.2% year-over-year at $5.6300 per pound, with prices trending higher into year-end due to US economic strength as Q3 GDP grew +4.4% quarter-over-quarter annualized, the most in two years.
The White House has yet to make a final decision on copper tariffs, but market participants are preparing for duties of around 15% on refined copper from January 2027, rising to 30% from 2028. As reported by CNBC TV18, expectations of higher import costs have triggered a scramble to move copper into the United States, tightening availability elsewhere. Robert Edwards, principal copper analyst at CRU, told Reuters that the threat of tariffs has turned what should have been a surplus this year into, at best, a balanced market. The US imported almost 885,000 tons of refined copper cathodes in the first half of 2026, some 3% more than in the same period last year, and more than double imports in the first six months of 2024. According to Barchart.com, copper prices dipped briefly in April after President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, then rallied to a record high of $5.8950 per pound in July after President Trump said he would impose 50% tariffs on copper imports on August 1, before plunging to $4.3235 per pound after President Trump said he would exempt refined copper imports from tariffs.
COMEX inventories have risen for 46 consecutive days to a record 675,185 metric tons through an arbitrage trade that capitalizes on higher COMEX prices. According to TradingKey, LME copper inventories have continued to rebound recently, standing at 239,925 metric tons on August 20, up 1.67% from the previous day, while COMEX inventories surpassed 743,000 short tons, setting a new historical high. In July alone, more than 200,000 tons of copper landed at US ports—the largest monthly volume recorded in IHS Markit shipping data dating back to 2014. The US imported a record 1.64 million tons in the full year of 2025, with refined copper ultimately given an exemption from tariffs last year, which initially sent prices plummeting. Supply disruptions at the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have also contributed to the tightening market, with Zijin Mining expecting equity production to decrease by as much as 57,000 metric tons this year. The DRC recently imposed an immediate export ban on copper and cobalt concentrates on August 6, adding to supply constraints.
The mass relocation of copper has fundamentally altered the physical market balance, with traders currently flooding American warehouses to front-run impending tariff threats. As reported by Reuters, CRU originally projected a 639,000-ton global copper surplus for 2026, but assuming the metal stockpiled in the US remains trapped, analysts now view the market as balanced at best. Market participants expect the metal to remain stranded in the US, as the costs involved erase the financial incentive to re-export. Copper currently stored in Comex warehouses is already duty-paid, and Glencore CEO Gary Nagle noted that prices will likely fall once a final tariff decision is announced, regardless of the exact duty rate, simply because it will eliminate current uncertainty. "You'll have these high stockpiles in the US, which over time will be drawn down for use ... not to be exported again," Nagle said in the company's recent earnings call.
Even as supply growth struggles, demand for copper continues to strengthen across multiple sectors. As reported by CNBC TV18, the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centres has become a major driver of consumption, with copper being a critical component in power systems, cooling infrastructure and network equipment used by large-scale computing facilities. Countries worldwide are investing heavily in electricity transmission and distribution networks, while the automotive sector requires substantially more copper than conventional vehicles due to electric vehicle motors, batteries, and charging systems. Over a longer cycle, copper fundamentals benefit from structural demand growth in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and data center construction, though high copper prices may also drive R&D into substitute materials and improve recycling rates. US consumption of refined copper in 2025 rose by +7.6% year-over-year to 1.700 million metric tons, with wire rod mills and brass mills being the primary users in 2021.
